Steve
09-10-2009, 01:23 PM
Boks geared to bolt gate
2009-09-10 08:36
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Bok No 9 Fourie du Preez (File)
Comment: Rob Houwing, Sport24 chief writer
Cape Town - South Africa’s selection for the crucial Vodacom Tri-Nations Test against New Zealand in Hamilton is an eminently sensible one, if fairly predictable to dissect in strategic terms.
In a lone change to the line-up who had a rare comeuppance in Brisbane last Saturday, Frans Steyn – he of the freakish out-of-hand kicking range – has earned the nod ahead of that unfortunate musical chair Ruan Pienaar, and it seems to fit in snugly with specific Springbok requirements at Waikato Stadium.
While the latter, who has done little glaringly wrong for the national cause of late, is entitled to be contemplating a trip to the shrink’s couch while an identity crisis of note possibly mounts in his mind, a horses-for-courses approach by Peter de Villiers for this crunch cannot really be quibbled with.
Steyn is a comforting physical presence in the last line of defence, given that the All Blacks are forced by championship circumstance into placing a high premium on attacking play, whether it be with ball in hand or via the tactical boots of Dan Carter, Stephen Donald and company.
In any one-on-one near the Springbok try-line against a rampaging Ma’a Nonu, for instance, the 100kg Steyn is less likely than most backline defenders to suddenly impersonate a feet-in-the-air Mike Catt versus Jonah Lomu.
The Boks, of course, have a bevy of kicking options of their own, designed to keep them in the right real estate for as long as possible in Hamilton, and everyone knows they would be crazy – and are unlikely -- to depart from their conservative, “strangulation” formula in the quest to close out the title in their favour.
While Odwa Ndungane’s lack of explosive pace was again evident in the defeat to Australia, perhaps his presence again, in the place of injured JP Pietersen, is an inadvertent comfort for this one – a game the Boks can probably afford to lose, remember, if it is within a tight enough margin.
Ndungane does donkeywork in a calm, no-frills way and, even if Pietersen’s loping strides bring sometimes under-appreciated game-breaking qualities to the party, he is a tad more gaffe-prone under pressure than his Sharks team-mate.
Of course there had been some midweek cries for changes to a presently hard-pressed front row, but again I’m all for the continuity displayed in this selection at a time when panic measures would almost certainly be illogical.
Show me the guarantee, why don’t you, that Gurthro Steenkamp for Beast Mtawarira or Jannie du Plessis for the captain John Smit, of all people, is the answer – hey presto – to present Bok scrummaging shortcomings?
It needs to be kept in mind, too, that the still-learning Smit is not up against Aussie mini-nemesis Benn Robinson this time; he has looked reasonably assured this winter, for the most part, against seasoned New Zealand loosehead Tony Woodcock.
So the Springbok XV has been soundly picked: now it is all about the task of winning, which would truly mean landing the silverware in style, or at least keeping the floodgates from opening in a possible defeat.
Of course the Boks would be exceedingly ill-advised to adopt any keep-the-score-down approach as a central pillar of the game-plan, but this team is well-suited nevertheless to staving off, heaven forbid, an All Black avalanche that would really, dramatically swing open the back door to the title for them.
History on New Zealand turf suggests that defeat, however unnerving it may sound, is anything but an unlikely scenario for the Boks – an All Blacks home win percentage of 73.52 percent from 34 encounters since 1921 against the old enemy tells you as much.
But records since the turn of the Millennium also reveal that, despite the Boks only winning once in 10 meetings during that period to tilt the overall discrepancy even more heavily in All Black favour, it is seldom that they get genuinely “stuffed” and simultaneously concede the four-try bonus point while earning a fat zero log picking of their own.
The last time that happened was in 2002, when Corne Krige’s Boks crashed 41-20 in Wellington, and by five tries to two. (Saturday will see each side provide a lone starting survivor from that occasion: now-captain Richie McCaw for the home side and Victor Matfield for South Africa.)
There are two other games in the 2000s which suggest near-runaway All Black wins: 33-6 at Christchurch in 2007 and 35-17 at Wellington in 2006.
But in the first instance the Boks, a little controversially, had fielded a clear second-string side under Johann Muller’s leadership, and only conceded three tries anyway, while in the latter case seven Dan Carter penalties did most of the trick in achieving a wide margin of victory – the try tally was actually 2-2.
Here, in receding order since 2008, are the scores and try counts for the last 10 All Blacks-Boks encounters in New Zealand, with the hosts’ tallies listed first in each category:
2008 Dunedin: NZ 28 SA 30 (1-2 in tries)
2008 Wellington: NZ 19 SA 8 (1-1)
2007 Christchurch: NZ 33 SA 6 (3-0)
2006 Wellington: NZ 35 SA 17 (2-2)
2005 Dunedin: NZ 31 SA 27 (4-3)
2004 Christchurch: NZ 23 SA 21 (1-3)
2003 Dunedin: NZ 19 SA 11 (1-1)
2002 Wellington: NZ 41 SA 20 (5-2)
2001 Auckland: NZ 26 SA 15 (2-0)
2000 Christchurch: NZ 25 SA 12 (2-0)
So the SA worst-case scenario on Saturday – New Zealand cleaning up 5-0 in log-points terms – appears to be, mercifully, a fairly long shot …
2009-09-10 08:36
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http://cdn.24.com/files/Cms/General/d/288/a6355f474d314b5db7fa544a23ca3eef.jpg
Bok No 9 Fourie du Preez (File)
Comment: Rob Houwing, Sport24 chief writer
Cape Town - South Africa’s selection for the crucial Vodacom Tri-Nations Test against New Zealand in Hamilton is an eminently sensible one, if fairly predictable to dissect in strategic terms.
In a lone change to the line-up who had a rare comeuppance in Brisbane last Saturday, Frans Steyn – he of the freakish out-of-hand kicking range – has earned the nod ahead of that unfortunate musical chair Ruan Pienaar, and it seems to fit in snugly with specific Springbok requirements at Waikato Stadium.
While the latter, who has done little glaringly wrong for the national cause of late, is entitled to be contemplating a trip to the shrink’s couch while an identity crisis of note possibly mounts in his mind, a horses-for-courses approach by Peter de Villiers for this crunch cannot really be quibbled with.
Steyn is a comforting physical presence in the last line of defence, given that the All Blacks are forced by championship circumstance into placing a high premium on attacking play, whether it be with ball in hand or via the tactical boots of Dan Carter, Stephen Donald and company.
In any one-on-one near the Springbok try-line against a rampaging Ma’a Nonu, for instance, the 100kg Steyn is less likely than most backline defenders to suddenly impersonate a feet-in-the-air Mike Catt versus Jonah Lomu.
The Boks, of course, have a bevy of kicking options of their own, designed to keep them in the right real estate for as long as possible in Hamilton, and everyone knows they would be crazy – and are unlikely -- to depart from their conservative, “strangulation” formula in the quest to close out the title in their favour.
While Odwa Ndungane’s lack of explosive pace was again evident in the defeat to Australia, perhaps his presence again, in the place of injured JP Pietersen, is an inadvertent comfort for this one – a game the Boks can probably afford to lose, remember, if it is within a tight enough margin.
Ndungane does donkeywork in a calm, no-frills way and, even if Pietersen’s loping strides bring sometimes under-appreciated game-breaking qualities to the party, he is a tad more gaffe-prone under pressure than his Sharks team-mate.
Of course there had been some midweek cries for changes to a presently hard-pressed front row, but again I’m all for the continuity displayed in this selection at a time when panic measures would almost certainly be illogical.
Show me the guarantee, why don’t you, that Gurthro Steenkamp for Beast Mtawarira or Jannie du Plessis for the captain John Smit, of all people, is the answer – hey presto – to present Bok scrummaging shortcomings?
It needs to be kept in mind, too, that the still-learning Smit is not up against Aussie mini-nemesis Benn Robinson this time; he has looked reasonably assured this winter, for the most part, against seasoned New Zealand loosehead Tony Woodcock.
So the Springbok XV has been soundly picked: now it is all about the task of winning, which would truly mean landing the silverware in style, or at least keeping the floodgates from opening in a possible defeat.
Of course the Boks would be exceedingly ill-advised to adopt any keep-the-score-down approach as a central pillar of the game-plan, but this team is well-suited nevertheless to staving off, heaven forbid, an All Black avalanche that would really, dramatically swing open the back door to the title for them.
History on New Zealand turf suggests that defeat, however unnerving it may sound, is anything but an unlikely scenario for the Boks – an All Blacks home win percentage of 73.52 percent from 34 encounters since 1921 against the old enemy tells you as much.
But records since the turn of the Millennium also reveal that, despite the Boks only winning once in 10 meetings during that period to tilt the overall discrepancy even more heavily in All Black favour, it is seldom that they get genuinely “stuffed” and simultaneously concede the four-try bonus point while earning a fat zero log picking of their own.
The last time that happened was in 2002, when Corne Krige’s Boks crashed 41-20 in Wellington, and by five tries to two. (Saturday will see each side provide a lone starting survivor from that occasion: now-captain Richie McCaw for the home side and Victor Matfield for South Africa.)
There are two other games in the 2000s which suggest near-runaway All Black wins: 33-6 at Christchurch in 2007 and 35-17 at Wellington in 2006.
But in the first instance the Boks, a little controversially, had fielded a clear second-string side under Johann Muller’s leadership, and only conceded three tries anyway, while in the latter case seven Dan Carter penalties did most of the trick in achieving a wide margin of victory – the try tally was actually 2-2.
Here, in receding order since 2008, are the scores and try counts for the last 10 All Blacks-Boks encounters in New Zealand, with the hosts’ tallies listed first in each category:
2008 Dunedin: NZ 28 SA 30 (1-2 in tries)
2008 Wellington: NZ 19 SA 8 (1-1)
2007 Christchurch: NZ 33 SA 6 (3-0)
2006 Wellington: NZ 35 SA 17 (2-2)
2005 Dunedin: NZ 31 SA 27 (4-3)
2004 Christchurch: NZ 23 SA 21 (1-3)
2003 Dunedin: NZ 19 SA 11 (1-1)
2002 Wellington: NZ 41 SA 20 (5-2)
2001 Auckland: NZ 26 SA 15 (2-0)
2000 Christchurch: NZ 25 SA 12 (2-0)
So the SA worst-case scenario on Saturday – New Zealand cleaning up 5-0 in log-points terms – appears to be, mercifully, a fairly long shot …